Phillips O’Brien
Poor Donald Trump. For the last 21 months he had to do a great deal of lying. He had to pretend at times that he really cared about the people dying in the Russo-Ukraine War, that he really wanted a deal that was good for Ukraine, that he was getting frustrated with Vladimir Putin, and that he even liked Volodymyr Zelensky. At times Trump had to push himself to lie with real commitment and panache, fooling almost all the world’s press into believing that he might send Ukraine advanced weapons, that he might put harsh sanctions on Russia, that he might “pivot” away from supporting Putin towards helping Ukraine.
It obviously took a real toll on him. Having to pretend that he was not wholeheartedly committed to Putin or desperate for a Russian victory, that he did not despise Ukraine and Zelensky, was really difficult. Donald Trump has been serially disloyal and unfaithful to every person in his life, except for Vladimir Putin. He craves the affection and approval of the Russian dictator, loves talking with him, loves doing Putin’s bidding and, most of all, loves being with him. Even in the midst of Trump’s most outrageous lies (remember when he was going to send Ukraine Tomahawk missiles in September/October 2025?), the truth was there for those willing to see it. At exactly that time, he also hung a picture of himself next to Putin very prominently in the White House (above a picture of himself with a granddaughter). His real affections were always there for those who wanted to admit it—indeed they were on display.
Now, the lying is over. Donald is free to be what he always wanted to be and to sing it loudly to the world. He, and by extension the government of the United States of America, is Vladimir Putin’s friend and partner. He will help Putin, protect Putin, and do what he can to get the best possible deal for Vladimir Putin.
This time he probably cannot go back. The expressions of intense emotion of the last 24 hours are too clear for even the most gullible of the press (and that is most of them) to ever again start writing about the next, supposed Trump “pivot” to Ukraine. Trump is free now. His heart can sing the song he has always wanted to sing, and the American people can no longer deny that the USA is run by a Russian useful idiot or agent of influence (depending on the nomenclature you prefer). Personally I prefer agent of influence, because vast sums of money are also involved. Trump not only loves Putin, he wants to get paid. I tried to describe this concept not long after Trump’s second term began.
Trump Cannot Take The Lying Any More
Watch this very short clip from yesterday. It is both fascinating and very revealing.
First we have the effusiveness and emotion with which Trump thanks Vladimir Putin. You can see how absolutely delighted Trump is to be able to speak about Putin in the way he does and how much he really believes what he says.
“That is a big deal... I wanna take President Putin to be honest with you.”
Then pay close attention to the last few seconds. When Trump was informed that Zelensky had publicly called him “weak”, he blanches. It is like a slap in the face.
And Zelensky did indeed call Trump’s move “weak”, even while he maintained the fiction that the USA had been a strong supporter. The exact phrase he used was:
“a weak decision, unfortunately, a weak decision by strong partners”
Needless to say, after being told of the insult, Trump could not contain himself. Later in the day he unloaded on Zelensky, blaming the Ukrainian president for not accepting a deal that he and Russia wanted Ukraine to take. You can see how free (and angry) Trump is. Everything is Zelensky’s fault (and through that Ukraine’s fault). Russia and Putin are sensible and supportive partners, Ukrainians cannot accept that they will lose the war and the Russians want a deal.
And this one outburst was not alone. Earlier, outside of the White House, Trump had laid into Zelensky and the Ukrainians. According to Trump then it is Zelensky who “wants to make problems for the world” by continuing to attack Russian refineries. The way out of the situation was for Ukraine to “get a new leader who can make a deal”.
The final important thing to get from the last 24 hours is that this is not just Trump repeating a call to get rid of Zelensky, it was a wholesale repeating of his pro-Russian narrative and mindset. If you put all of his comments together, you can see how Trump reflexively repeats Moscow’s vision of the war. This includes how it was stupid of Ukraine to fight in the first place, how Russia will automatically win in the end because it is so strong, how Ukrainians actually take advantage of Americans (in the latest iteration by damaging poor American farmers by attacking Russian refineries). Here is a link to and an excerpt from one story with all such quotes.
“He wants to make problems for the world. He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel,” Mr. Trump said.Mr. Trump also suggested that if he had been U.S. president in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “would have never started.”
“There was no reason that the war with Ukraine and Russia started,” he said. “It started due to incompetence.”
Zelenskyy, Mr. Trump said, has “lost 30% of your country and you’ve had over a million people go between the two of them, over 2 million people killed. That’s a war that should have never started. And I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
It is pure, unadulterated (and unfiltered) Russian messaging, being spoken with conviction by the President of the USA.
So, Donald Trump is finally speaking his truth. It is not the first time he has spoken this way, but it is the most emphatic. In the past when he has done so, he has often tried in the following days to pretend he was not so one-sided. He succeeded in this well enough in the past that much of the media and political community (including Washington analysts, members of Congress, etc) could start bleating again about how Trump really could be won over to support Ukraine.
This time that may not be possible. One of the reasons is that this open and fulsome embrace of Putin is not just about diesel (as explained yesterday) and it did not just emerge out of thin air. This is about coming out openly and working with the Russians, to secure Russia the deal that it wants, to force Ukraine to bend the knee. It has been in the works for weeks.
And, as I’ve said in the past, it is a good thing to know the truth. Having false hope that Donald Trump might actually help Ukraine, might provide the Ukrainians with meaningful military support, might actually drop the hammer on Putin has made things far, far worse. It has led to Ukraine being less well prepared for this horrible winter to come, has delayed Europeans getting their act together and has wasted so much time chasing unicorns and butterflies. This kind of hope has killed.
Russian Strikes Against Ukrainian Civilians
To put this next story within the context of why Trump telling the truth is important, it is worthwhile looking back to April 2025, during one of Trump’s fits of trying to pretend he cared about Ukrainians—in particular Ukrainians being killed by Russian air strikes. At that time he tweeted out:
"I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let's get the Peace Deal DONE!"
Now, of course, he is not in the least bit bothered by the fact that the Russians are attacking Ukrainian civilians at a much increased tempo and killing many more in different strikes. This was when he was cutting all military aid to Ukraine and deliberately starving Ukraine of Patriot missiles.
It is worth remembering these moments, however, because while Trump was praising Putin and excoriating Ukrainians this week, the Russians were in fact stepping up their direct attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Indeed, they seem to be searching out soft targets such as buses, civilian cars and civilian apartment buildings to hit. Here is a list of what I can find in just the last three days.
- 7 October – Pryluky, Chernihiv region: A cruise missile hit a five-storey apartment block, killing 22 people, including 5 children.
- 7 October – Kyiv, Darnytskyi district: 2 people killed in a fire caused by an air attack.
- 7 October – Kremenchuk, Poltava region: A missile strike killed 2 people and injured 7.
- 7 October – Oleksandriia: 2 people killed.
- 7 October – nationwide total for the barrage: 28 killed, according to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry.
- 8 October – Kramatorsk, Donetsk region: A glide bomb hit two city buses, killing 30 people and wounding 18.
- 8 October – Kramatorsk and Bilenke: A drone strike on a civilian car in Kramatorsk killed 2, and 3 people were killed in neighbouring Bilenke.
- 8 October – Kyiv: Drone attacks killed 4 people and injured 19.
- 9 October – Zaporizhzhia region: Strikes on residential areas killed 1 man and wounded 5, including a child.
- 9 October – Ivano-Frankivsk: 1 man killed.
- 9 October – Bucha district, Kyiv region: A strike on warehouse facilities killed 1 woman and wounded 3.
- 10 October – Zaporizhzhia city: Five glide bombs fell on residential areas, killing 20 people, including 3 children.
What is most distressing/telling is that some of these strikes are causing mass casualties, killing 20, 30 or more at any one time. This, btw, is not a military target. It is the civilian bus in Kramatorsk which was targeted on October 8, part of an attack that has killed “at least” 30 people.
And it is not like the Russians are hiding what they are doing. They are justifying the attacks as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s civilian “economy”.
We can only assume that this is going to get worse. The Russians really are waging a campaign directly against Ukrainian civilian resolve now. It is, as discussed last week, one of their only options as they are struggling so badly on the battlefield and in defending against Ukrainian long-range and mid-range strike.
The Russians are not “inevitably” winning as Trump would have you believe—they are still struggling. Indeed there are reports coming in this week that the Ukrainians are starting to push forward in different areas stretching in a large arc from Zaporizhzhia oblast all the way around to the Ukrainian border with Russia in Kharkiv oblast.
Moreover, Putin knows that he will suffer absolutely no blowback, at least from the USA, for massacring Ukrainian civilians with impunity. Indeed, he knows that the US government will praise him as it has this week, just as he is upping civilian attacks.
At some point Americans need to be honest about being accomplices in this Russian undertaking.
Do Ukraine And Europe Understand What They Must Do?
Now that the USA has joined China in being an open supporter of Russia in its war on Ukraine, there really is only one question. And that is, do Ukraine And Europe Understand What They Must Do?
It is on its surface a daunting question. The two superpowers of the moment are now backing Vladimir Putin. That is a nightmare for European policymakers, who have spent the recent period contorting themselves to do everything possible to keep the USA sweet. Now, even the most deluded of them have to understand what they are facing.
And yet, it is not a hopeless situation. Even though the two superpowers back Russia, Ukraine is still showing the advantage in the adaptation and initiative war, and is arguably in a better position this year than last. With forceful and strong European backing, they can keep taking the war to the Russians strategically and do not have to fold like Donald Trump is now stating.
The Ukrainians, hopefully, finally understand what they must do. Their first response to Donald Trump saying that he had cut his diesel deal with Putin because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil installations—was to attack more of them. Trump’s announcement was followed a few hours later by reports of a Ukrainian attack on Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov-on-Don. This is an important shipping facility from which Russian oil is prepared for the world market.
A Ukrainian official came out and told the FT that this was now the first of many, that Ukraine will “burn” Russian refineries. It will be important to see if this happens. In the past the Ukrainians have, seemingly deliberately, dialled back on attacks on Russian oil installations of all types, perhaps as a way of signalling to Russia that they could work out a deal. Now, perhaps, they understand that this is not going to happen—not while the US backs Russia.
The more difficult answer to this question will come from European states. They really are on their own now. They have the economic and technological strength to help Ukraine win the war—but whether they have the political and strategic ability to utilize that strength is the unanswered question.