Europe won't save itself by trading the welfare state for weapons. Waging war in the name of democracy whilst letting democracy die is a mistake that future generations will not forgive today's decision-makers for.
In the last month, we saw Elon Musk, Trump's special minister, interfering in the internal politics of the United Kingdom, Germany, Romania, Ireland, and the EU itself. The US Vice President came to Munich to support the AfD, Germany's far-right party, a week before the elections.
Last week, we heard that same Vice President call democratic governments "totalitarian" and classify democratic rules as "censorship". We saw a representative of the American President determine that Europe would not be part of any negotiations about Ukraine but would be called upon to comply with the terms of that agreement.
Yesterday, we watched from afar a supposed peace summit for Ukraine, held between a US business representative, the country that claims it has nothing to do with Europe, and Russia, the aggressor power, but without the presence of the occupied country.
In a subsequent comment, President Trump responded to his Ukrainian counterpart saying: "they should never have started" and added what he was after: sharing Ukraine's rare earth elements, which the tech oligarchs covet, with Russia.
Trump and Putin are allies. Trump and Putin share the same objectives: to normalise autocratic and totalitarian regimes – hence choosing Saudi Arabia as the venue for this meeting – and to promote the proximity of their oligarchies, divide zones of influence, destabilise Europe's democracies and dominate their governments through support and funding of far-right parties: AfD in Germany, Orban in Hungary, Chega in Portugal, the neo-fascists in Italy.
If Trump and Putin are allies, and if Putin is the enemy, what is Trump?
This simple problem of logic has tied European leadership, including Portugal's, in knots. They don't know what to do, they're paralysed by fear and stupefaction, as if this moment hadn't been forewarned.
European liberal governments have lost themselves in their own budgetary and Eurocratic dogmas and blind faith in NATO.
They underestimated Trumpism, American tech oligarchs, and Europe's digital and energy dependence.
They abandoned the climate agenda because they thought they could replace Russian oil with American gas.
They bet on prolonging the Ukraine War without ever engaging in peace diplomacy, towards victory, they said. They boycotted the Istanbul peace negotiations in 2022, which already had Kiev's agreement for a neutrality exit, and handed Kurdish refugees to Erdogan to gain his support in NATO. And all this for what? The EU is paralysed before two far-right emperors who establish between themselves the terms of Ukraine's surrender, the far-right's assault on power in Europe, and the organisation of world business.
The ad hoc meeting convened by Macron was an embarrassing failure.
European leaders are divided between desperate pleas for Trump not to stop being Europe's friend, the absurd acceptance of demands for increased defence spending, intended to benefit American industry, or the even more absurd demand for a European army.
Trade schools, health and solidarity for bombs and killer drones, and the only ones who will remain safe are the far-right parties that feed off the degradation of the welfare state. Just because the current of history drags us towards disaster doesn't mean we should let ourselves go. The Portuguese people, and Europeans, deserve more than these weak, disoriented, frightened leaders.
Europe doesn't assert itself by rushing to war because "this is not the time for peace", as the German Social Democratic chancellor said. It asserts itself by confronting the insanity of competing emperors, if it maintains active neutrality, and achieves non-aggression treaties between European states, affirming the power of diplomacy and international law.
Europe doesn't need its own army to guarantee its autonomy.
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) can and should free itself from the old constraints of the Cold War and US presence. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation is a necessity for European peoples west of Russia, and already exists in parallel with the Council of Europe, the guarantor body of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms. Both constitute reference international institutions. There is more political Europe beyond Brussels' ordering.
Europe won't save itself by trading the welfare state for weapons. The EU countries combined have more active military personnel than the US or Russia, and the sum of their Defence budgets is higher than Russia's and close to China's.
Waging war in the name of democracy whilst letting democracy die is a mistake that future generations will not forgive today's decision-makers for. It remains to be seen how Portugal wants to be remembered in that future.
Speech in the plenary of the Assembly of the Republic, 19 February 2025.