Dan Katz
In June 2023 Ukraine launched its long-expected offensive with the intention of breaking through Russia’s well-prepared defensive lines in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine aimed to get to Tomak, Melitopol and Berdyansk in a drive towards the occupied Black Sea coast, but has fallen far short.
The US, EU states and the UK had eventually provided Ukraine with some of the modern weapons it had been demanding for many months. However, the delay in donating the equipment which Ukraine needed to follow-up spectacular victories against the Russians in Kharkiv and Kherson at the end of 2022 allowed the Russians time to create formidable defences.
And Ukraine attacked without adequate air cover.
Five months later Ukraine’s offensive has gained little ground, an average of only 90m per day in its push towards Tomak, and at great human cost.
Reluctance
The reason for Western reluctance and timewasting is political and strategic, not financial. The West wants to stop Ukraine losing to Putin’s primitive imperialism, but is frightened of the possible Russian reaction if its army is defeated in Ukraine.
Some modern, F-16 fighter planes have been promised to Ukraine, but they will arrive only in 2024. The US has donated some longer-range ATACM artillery rockets, small numbers of which have been used recently by Ukraine to great effect against Russian airfields and air defence systems. However, the US, has only given Ukraine about 20 of these missiles.
Speaking to the Economist magazine last week Ukraine’s senior general, Valery Zaluzhny, admitted the battlelines had not changed much and the war was now in “stalemate.”
However, the Russian army is attempting to seize the initiative, attacking the Ukrainian-held town of Avdiivka, north of Donetsk city, in October, at the expense of staggering numbers of Russian dead. The UK’s military assess the Russians have also lost 200 tanks and other vehicles as they sent badly prepared troops into devastating Ukrainian minefields and artillery fire.
Nevertheless, Putin’s disregard for the loss of the lives of his troops allowed him to take Bakhmut in May. And the attack on Avdiivka seems motivated by the political need to be seen to be taking Ukrainian territory.
Hard
It is now hard to see how Ukraine might force Russia out. But it is also clear how Ukraine might possibly lose.
The deranged right wing of the US Republicans is pressing to end aid to Ukraine. And the US Presidential election of 2024 — depending on the precise result — might result in great damage or even an end to US support for Ukraine.
Right now the Israel-Hamas war is taking the news and political focus from Ukraine.
And, given that Ukraine seems unable to force Russia out, it seems that the US and EU leadership are beginning to discuss again the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine by brokering a deal between Kyiv and Putin. If such an agreement is concluded, in this situation, it would mean that Ukraine would be forced to make very substantial territorial — and probably political — concessions to Putin.
And that would imply the West forcing Ukraine into a lousy agreement. The French and German states did this in 2015, following the Russian seizure of Crimea and territory in Donbas.
We oppose any such move.